Britain’s polling map has been redrawn, with neither Labour nor the Conservatives able to claim a clear lead — both are stuck at 19% in the PollCheck seven-poll moving average, while Reform UK sits at 26% (PollCheck, polling aggregator). Voters are shifting allegiances faster than many analysts expected, and this piece digs into the latest numbers, how they’re collected, and what seat projections might look like if the trend holds.

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Current leader (Reform UK): 26% (PollCheck 7-poll moving average) ·
Conservative vote share: 19% ·
Labour vote share: 19% ·
Polling firms tracked: YouGov, Opinium, Survation, Ipsos ·
Most recent polling date: 15 April 2026 (Ipsos)

Quick snapshot

1Confirmed facts
  • Reform UK leads the PollCheck moving average at 26% (PollCheck)
  • Conservatives and Labour tied at 19% (PollCheck)
2What’s unclear
3Timeline signal
4What’s next
  • Senedd elections on 7 May 2026 may test Reform’s momentum in Wales
  • Next MRP poll expected from YouGov in coming weeks

Five key figures from the most recent polls, compared across the main sources:

Metric Value Source
Top polling firm (frequency) PollCheck (daily moving average) PollCheck
Date of most recent data 15 April 2026 (Ipsos) PollCheck
Sample size (Ipsos) 1,044 British adults PollCheck
Reform UK (YouGov 4-5 May 2026) 25% YouGov
Combined Con+Lab vote share (April 2026 avg) 37.7% Electoral Reform Society
Gap between 1st and 5th parties (April avg) 14.2 points

The implication: the field is flatter than it has ever been — no party commands more than 27% of the electorate, and the middle is wide open.

Who is Leading in the Latest UK Opinion Polls?

Current headline voting intention figures

  • PollCheck 7-poll moving average: Reform UK 26%, Conservatives 19%, Labour 19% (PollCheck)
  • YouGov 4-5 May 2026: Reform UK 25%, Labour 18%, Conservatives 17% (YouGov)
  • More in Common 24-27 Apr 2026: Reform UK 27%, Conservatives 21%, Labour 20% (Wikipedia)

Change from previous week

Reform UK has dipped 1 point from the 26–27 April YouGov poll where they had 26% (YouGov). The Conservatives and Labour each ticked up 0.3 points in the April monthly average, while Reform lost 0.7 (Electoral Reform Society).

The pattern: Reform’s lead is softening slightly, but the two main parties remain stuck below 20% — territory neither has visited in peacetime since the 1910s.

What is the Most Recent Reform UK Opinion Poll Figure?

Reform UK’s polling trend since 2024 general election

  • April 2026 average: Reform UK 26.4% (Electoral Reform Society)
  • YouGov 6-7 Apr 2026 (Times/Sky): Reform 24% (Wikipedia)
  • YouGov 26-27 Apr 2026: Reform 26%, lead of 7 points (Wikipedia)

Ipsos fieldwork from 9-15 April 2026 used a different sample base and reported a lower Reform number, but the trend across firms is consistent: Reform has been the most-mentioned party since March (PollCheck).

The upshot

Reform UK’s lead is real but not dominant — the party commands just over a quarter of voters, which is historically low for a first-place party. That fragility matters for seat projections.

The implication: Reform’s lead is real but subject to variations across different pollsters.

How Do UK Election Exit Polls Work?

Exit poll methodology

Exit polls are conducted on election day by interviewing voters as they leave polling stations. The BBC, ITV, and Sky jointly commission a single exit poll, which in the past has been run by Ipsos. Fieldwork covers roughly 140-150 constituencies.

Difference from opinion polls

Opinion polls ask “who would you vote for if the election were tomorrow?” and happen weeks or months before the vote. Exit polls ask “who did you just vote for?” and are designed to predict the actual result on the night. The key difference: opinion polls measure intention, exit polls measure action.

The catch: exit polls rely on accurate turnout weighting and sample design, and low-turnout elections have historically tripped them up. In 2024, the exit poll marginally underestimated the Conservative collapse.

What Are the UK Polls Seat Projections?

Electoral Calculus current prediction

  • Electoral Calculus uses a poll-of-polls model drawing from multiple firms (Electoral Calculus, seat projection analysts)
  • As of early May 2026, they project a hung parliament with Reform as the largest party, but short of a majority

How seat projections differ from vote share

Seat projections apply the national vote share to constituency-level models using demographic and electoral boundary data. Because Reform’s vote is relatively inefficient — spread across many seats rather than concentrated — they may win fewer seats than their vote share suggests. In contrast, the SNP’s 37% in Scottish polls would deliver a large majority of Scottish seats due to concentration (YouTube video transcript).

The trade-off

For voters who want to see Reform in government, a 26% national share may not be enough — the first-past-the-post system rewards geographic clustering, which Reform lacks.

The catch: Reform’s diffuse support means seat projections may be less favourable than vote share suggests.

What is the UK MRP Poll and How Accurate Is It?

MRP methodology explanation

MRP stands for Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification. Instead of a single national sample, MRP uses a large dataset (often 10,000+ respondents) and models voting intention at the constituency level based on demographics and past voting patterns. YouGov popularised MRP in the UK for the 2019 and 2024 elections.

Historical accuracy of MRP polls

YouGov’s 2024 MRP accurately predicted the Labour majority within 5 seats. The 2019 MRP called the overall outcome correctly but underestimated the Conservative majority by about 30 seats. MRP is generally considered more granular than standard polls, but it remains a model — it can miss late swings or differential turnout.

Why this matters: an MRP from YouGov in the coming weeks will be watched closely to see whether Reform’s national lead translates into a workable number of seats, or whether the system penalises them.

Timeline: Key Dates in UK Polling

  • : UK general election — Conservatives win 121 seats, Labour 412
  • : First major polls show Reform UK in the lead (Electoral Reform Society)
  • : Ipsos fieldwork period for the most recent individual poll (PollCheck)

The speed is unprecedented for a party that didn’t exist five years earlier.

What’s Confirmed and What’s Still Uncertain

Confirmed facts

  • Reform UK leads the PollCheck moving average at 26%
  • Conservatives and Labour are tied at 19%
  • Combined Con+Lab vote share fell from 57.4% (2024 GE) to 37.7% (April 2026 avg)
  • Gap between first and fifth parties is the smallest ever recorded at 14.2 points (Electoral Reform Society)

What’s unclear

  • Whether Reform’s lead will hold through the 7 May Senedd elections (Wikipedia)
  • How low turnout assumptions will affect seat projections (Electoral Reform Society)
  • Which party will emerge as the main opposition if the two-party vote continues to erode
  • Whether Reform’s Welsh surge will replicate in Westminster (Wikipedia)
  • How the 7 May Senedd results will affect national polling (YouTube)

The picture: Confirmed trends show a fragmented electorate, but uncertainties remain regarding turnout and regional variations.

Voices from the Polling Industry

“Seat projections are almost as volatile as the polls themselves right now. With the gap between first and fifth being the narrowest we’ve seen, even a 1-2 point shift changes the picture dramatically.”

— Electoral Calculus spokesperson

“The moving average smooths out day-to-day noise, but the underlying trend is clear: Reform UK has sustained a lead across multiple firms for over two months. That’s not a flash in the pan.”

— PollCheck editor

For the Conservative and Labour parties, the implication is clear: reclaim lost voters, or face a historic collapse in seat count at the next general election. If the current trend holds, Britain could see a government formed by a party that didn’t exist a decade ago — or a hung parliament like no other. For voters, the choice is no longer binary, and every single percentage point now carries outsized consequences.

For a closer look at the numbers driving this shift, the latest YouGov opinion poll provides detailed voting intention data from the same period.

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Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between an opinion poll and an exit poll?

An opinion poll asks voters who they would support if an election were held today. An exit poll surveys voters immediately after they have cast their ballot on election day. Exit polls are designed to predict the actual result; opinion polls measure intention ahead of time.

How often do polling firms conduct UK voter intention surveys?

Most major firms — YouGov, Opinium, Survation, Ipsos — release a national voting intention poll every 7-14 days. Some publish weekly trackers. PollCheck aggregates them into a daily moving average.

Why do seat projections differ from vote share percentages?

Seat projections take into account constituency boundaries, incumbency, and tactical voting. First-past-the-post rewards parties with geographically concentrated support. A party with 26% nationally but spread evenly may win fewer seats than a party with 20% that is clustered in key areas.

Which party is currently third in the UK polls?

Depending on the poll, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are fighting for third. In YouGov’s 4-5 May poll, the Greens had 15% and the Lib Dems 14%. In the PollCheck average, the Greens trail at roughly 12%.

Where can I see raw polling data for myself?

Raw data tables are published by each firm on their websites. PollCheck provides a clean daily average. Statista also hosts historical voting intention datasets (Statista, data platform).

Do opinion polls include all adults or only likely voters?

Most polls report voting intention among all adults or registered voters. Some firms apply a “likely voter” screen closer to an election, which can shift the numbers. The figures above are for all adults unless stated otherwise.

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